Making Quick Decisions with Limited Data
During my recent talk at Microsoft, a program manager shared her frustration on having trouble making quick decisions with very limited data, say 10-20% of data. Her manager considers this ability is one of the major indicators of professional maturity. I agree with her manager. But how can one make quick decisions with very limited data?
The key is to become systematic in the decision making process. Summarize and build decision making models that take a few parameters. If you constructed many simulation models in the business world, you can change a few parameters and provide quick conclusions. Once these models become part of your thought process and part of your intuition, you can accelerate your decision making process significantly. Of course, you can always compare with incoming data and validate your conclusions again.
Observe the senior people around you as they face the same challenges. Find out how they come up with quick decisions and why they think the way they do. You will be able to learn and construct your models very quickly.
Understanding the precision of the decision/conclusion is also very important. In this fast changing world, you are expected to give an educated guess with 60-80% of accuracy instead of 99.9% of accuracy. It is simply okay to take a guess or give a quick conclusion. When you do that, add a disclaimer of your precision along with your conclusion.
Elizabeth Xu
The key is to become systematic in the decision making process. Summarize and build decision making models that take a few parameters. If you constructed many simulation models in the business world, you can change a few parameters and provide quick conclusions. Once these models become part of your thought process and part of your intuition, you can accelerate your decision making process significantly. Of course, you can always compare with incoming data and validate your conclusions again.
Observe the senior people around you as they face the same challenges. Find out how they come up with quick decisions and why they think the way they do. You will be able to learn and construct your models very quickly.
Understanding the precision of the decision/conclusion is also very important. In this fast changing world, you are expected to give an educated guess with 60-80% of accuracy instead of 99.9% of accuracy. It is simply okay to take a guess or give a quick conclusion. When you do that, add a disclaimer of your precision along with your conclusion.
Elizabeth Xu
Comments
Sometimes, I am indecisive, especially when the the consequences of decision have big impact on myself. I always try to get as much info as possible in order to make fully informed decision.
Could you tell us the system or the methodology that you use at your daily life/business to make sound decisions? When you are not sure the accuracy and you may suffer a lot if the decision is wrong, how do you overcome your feeling to make the decision comfortably?
I was amazed by your talk and your answer to my question. Thank you for your time and willingness to educate us.
I will see you soon.
Joe